Airs – Ian Lance Taylor

NPG

Population growth must stop. Regardless of what we believe the resource limit of the planet is, it is clear that there is a limit. If population growth continues, we will hit that limit. As the saying goes, anything which can not go on forever will stop.

Fortunately, the rate of growth of population is slowing. The major factors appear to be increasing wealth, increasing education of women, and increasing access to birth control.

However, some powerful organizations, such as the Catholic Church, are opposed to the use of birth control. Clearly not everybody believes this–even many Catholics must use birth control. However, I’m also sure that many people do believe it. It follows that the slowing rate of population growth will itself stop at some point, when it hits the limit of people who believe that birth control is immoral.

Therefore, it is essential for our long-term pleasant existence on this planet that the Catholic Church, and other organizations opposed to birth control, change their position. Fortunately, there is historical precedent for this. At one time most, perhaps all, Christian churches forbade birth control. However, they have changed their position. For example, at the seventh Lambeth Conference, the Anglican Church agreed that birth control could be used. The Catholic Church has reversed themselves in the past. We must hope that they will do so again on this issue in the relatively near future.

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4 responses to “NPG”

  1. fche Avatar
    fche

    > Population growth must stop. Regardless of what we believe the resource limit of the planet is, it is
    > clear that there is a limit. If population growth continues, we will hit that limit.

    OK, unless of course that limit is itself a function of our population. Specifically, modernists may
    argue that increased technology produced by a larger, wealthier developed nation such as your
    own very fine country could result in supporting far more people than the technologies available
    based on today’s population.

    > Therefore, it is essential for our long-term pleasant existence on this planet that the Catholic
    > Church, and other organizations opposed to birth control, change their position.

    I’m as atheist as the next guy, but I have a growing respect for some aspects of several
    western religions, for example to the extent that they helped form our civilization.
    If it were really a problem, I’d rather have The Other Guy cut back on his baby
    production than us good guys.

  2. Ian Lance Taylor Avatar
    Ian Lance Taylor

    I can’t imagine any possible technology which would permit the population of the Earth to increase without limit. OK, I take it back, I can imagine one: complete virtualization of all inhabitants, so that we only exist in computer generated worlds. Short of that, as I said, regardless of what we believe the resource limit is, it is clear that there is a limit.

    As far as who should cut back on baby production, I have a few comments.

    1) As far as I know, of the various world religions, Catholicism is the only one which prohibits birth control. There are some Islamic and Judaic leaders who argue against birth control, but there is no determined position against it as there is with Catholicism.

    2) While children often share the beliefs of their parents, they often don’t. It does not make sense to promote your ideas by having more children. It makes much more sense to promote them by making them attractive to everybody, including your children.

    3) Having more children is actually a sign of poverty. It traps you into consuming resources purely to keep society going, rather than to improve it. For whatever reason, it is clearly historically false that a larger population leads to better ideas, or to a better society. So if we want to make our society get better, having more children is exactly the wrong approach.

    4) What really counts when it comes to the limits of the Earth is not population per se, but overall resource usage. People in the U.S. use far more resources than people in, say, Africa. Some estimates say the ratio is about 25 to 1 these days. Of course this is due to point 3.

  3. fche Avatar
    fche

    > For whatever reason, it is clearly historically false that a larger population leads to
    > better ideas, or to a better society. So if we want to make our society get better,
    > having more children is exactly the wrong approach.

    That history may apply to other countries, but in any reasonably developed country,
    the curves of population and e.g. GDP growth are parallel. (I hope you don’t have a
    paragraph ready trying to explain how e.g. the US has had worse ideas and society
    as it grew. I’m sure such a belief would put you into a minority.)

    > 1) As far as I know, of the various world religions, Catholicism is the only one which
    > prohibits birth control.

    Well OK, but why do you believe that catholicism’s attitude is in fact responsible for any
    meaningful portion of current population growth? In other words, do you believe that
    those places with the highest reproductive rates are that way because of their priests?
    If in fact their religious policy is not responsible, then singling them out this way is
    pointless.

  4. Ian Lance Taylor Avatar
    Ian Lance Taylor

    I agree that GDP and population increase together, but I think you have the causation wrong. Before the industrial revolution, most populations were near their Malthusian limits, barring temporary downturns like the Black Death. The industrial revolution permitted population to expand. Population really started exploding after new medical technologies were developed. I don’t see any strong evidence that larger population led to new ideas. I see the reverse: new ideas led to larger population.

    I do think that Catholicism contributes to high population growth rates in countries like Guatemala and Honduras. But I admit that the highest population growth rates are in very poor countries, where children are a form of wealth rather than being expenses. I still think the issue is relevant, because we know that population growth rates go down as wealth increases, but the Catholic church is opposed to that. That said, I admit that I may be overstating their influence. Italy is low on the charts. Ireland, on the other hand, is higher than one would expect, equal to Bolivia.

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